It is pretty much common cause among strategic analysts that the next world war will be fought over water .

The argument that oil might be the casus belli has been dealt a body blow by the Covid 19 lockdown.

The black stuff remains vital to economic prosperity – important enough, certainly to take up arms over it.

But in the last three months as the economy was forced to take a backseat to public health, the price of oil dropped below zero.

And through the worst times since the Second World War,  the clear stuff has remained as vital to life itself as ever it did.

The most dramatic example of this is the battle over the water in Africa’s longest river stretch 6650 kms from south to .

President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his capacity as revolving chairman of the African Union, presided over a virtual summit yesterday seeking agreement on the use of  the Nile.

The three parties in the thick of things – Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt – agreed to continue pursuing an accord.

That is obviously better than having any of them walk off in a huff.

But they are still a considerable distance from finding an African solution to this existential African problem.

We may take comfort from Egypt asserting that it will not go to war over the Nile.

But since President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has involved both the United Nations Security Council and the Arab, in addition to the African Union, in this imbroglio we may be assured the matter will not go away for some time.

El Sisi would have us believe that the problem started when Ethiopia broke ground nine years ago on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) across the Blue Nile.

The six-billion-dollar wall rising 155-metres above the water below and extending 1,85 kms across the valley  will make Ethiopia Africa’s largest producer of hydro electric energy and lift many of that country’s 106-million people out of poverty.

Downstream, Egypt counters that the dam will reduce the supply of water on which 100-million of its people are entirely reliant for their survival.

The third riparian country at the top end of the giant river is Sudan, where the White and Blue Niles meet in its capital Khartoum.

It too complains that the GERD will reduce its supply of Nile water. But its position is convoluted by the fact that it will buy some of the 6500 mw generated at the GERD and that the dam will reduce the flood damage it suffers annually from the Nile.

Egypt’s historical hegemony over the Nile was underpinned by agreements signed in 1929 and 1959 by the colonial power, Britain.

Ethiopia was not party to those agreements that it maintain are part of an unhappy past.

It has sought a new agreement with all eleven riparian countries – Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, and Eritrea in addition to the northern troika.

This has proved problematic because it requires more than a technical accord on water sharing.

It runs to legal, historical and trust issues that have brought the United States and Europe into the equation.

The matter has come to a head now because satellite pictures show Ethiopia is carrying out its plan to start filling the dam.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for the compromise he showed in forging a peace with neighboring Eritrea, has been stubborn on this issue. He refuses to tell Egypt how much water will be allowed to flow downstream from the GERD.

Egypt wants this and more, nothing less than an agreement on how much water it can rely on in times of drought and an agreement on the very definition of a drought.

There is also divergence over the timing of the filling.

Ethiopia says it could complete this process in three years but offers a compromise of taking four to seven years. 

Egypt maintains the faster this happens, the greater the impact on its farmers downstream. It is asking for Ethiopia to take at least 21years to fill the dam.

However forceful the ministers of Ahmed and El Sisi may sound in negotiations, their positions must be seen against the domestic troubles in both Ethiopia, which has had to postpone for a year elections scheduled for August and Egypt which has had to commit its full military capability to fighting insurgents in the Sinai.

El Sisi’s claim to be fighting for the very existence of his people must be measured against the real beneficiaries of the Nile water – the factory owner and big farmers who are all part of the power elite that keep him where he is.

Ahmed, for his part, cannot back down on a project financed by loans and donations from a public that still vividly remembers the civil war and famine that turned it into a basket case.

The GERD is an integral part in Ethiopia continuing on its upward trajectory.

ends

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Human Rights Watch lists violations that include enslavement of young people.

Isaias Afwerki used Eritrea’s  20 year war with Ethiopia to justify his oppression.

This includes indefinite conscription that amounts to the enforced labour of young people.

Parliament, political parties, an independent judiciary and a 1997 constitution are prohibited.

Government opponents are jailed without trial and held incommunicado.

Signing a peace deal with Ethiopia last year and re-establishing diplomatic relations with Djibouti have been hailed internationally.

But according to Human Rights Watch, they’ve not changed Afwerki’s  oppressive measures.

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He’ll visit the Amhara capital Bahir Dar and the historical city of Gondar.

The Eritrean President’s visit to neighboring Ethiopia comes as the UN Security Council considers lifting sanctions against his country.

The 15-nation UN powerhouse will next week to debate a British draft resolution lifting the arms embargo, travel ban and asset freeze on Eritrea following its rapprochement with Ethiopia and Somalia. 

France and some other council members , however want to maintain pressure  on President Azarias Awerki until he’s signed a peace accord with Djibouti.

Deadly clashes have occurred between the Horn of Africa countries for a decade since Djibouti accused Asmara of moving troops across the border.

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The report documents how Israel’s forced many asylum seekers ate choose between deportation to a third country, return to their countries of origin or indefinite detention.

Israel’s Supreme Court has suspended all deportations of Eritrean and Sudanese asylum seekers.

The Amnesty International report finds that Israel’s been deporting asylum seekers to Uganda these past five years.

Israel authorities scythe deportees will be given residence and work permits by Uganda and won’t be forced to return to their countries where they feel threatened.

The Kampala authorities deny the existence of any agreement with Israel.

Interviews with deportees from Israel reveal they are living in legal limbo in Uganda. 

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Ethiopian jet accompanied the defectors once they had entered their airspace.

This dramatic escape from one of the world’s most closed off countries has been confirmed by Eritrean opposition groups.

Ethiopian spokesman for the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization Nasredin Ahmed Ali says the defectors were flying small-sized fighter jets.

The pilots have been identified and described as very experienced.

An Eritrean official based in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa says he’s unaware of the defection.

Ethiopian spokesman Getachew Reda has declined comment.

Eritrean pilots have defected to Saudi Arabia in the past.

This is the first time they’ve come to Ethiopia.

Eritrea and Ethiopia fought a border for two years until the year 2000 which left tens of thousands dead.

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