It is pretty much common cause among strategic analysts that the next world war will be fought over water .

The argument that oil might be the casus belli has been dealt a body blow by the Covid 19 lockdown.

The black stuff remains vital to economic prosperity – important enough, certainly to take up arms over it.

But in the last three months as the economy was forced to take a backseat to public health, the price of oil dropped below zero.

And through the worst times since the Second World War,  the clear stuff has remained as vital to life itself as ever it did.

The most dramatic example of this is the battle over the water in Africa’s longest river stretch 6650 kms from south to .

President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his capacity as revolving chairman of the African Union, presided over a virtual summit yesterday seeking agreement on the use of  the Nile.

The three parties in the thick of things – Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt – agreed to continue pursuing an accord.

That is obviously better than having any of them walk off in a huff.

But they are still a considerable distance from finding an African solution to this existential African problem.

We may take comfort from Egypt asserting that it will not go to war over the Nile.

But since President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has involved both the United Nations Security Council and the Arab, in addition to the African Union, in this imbroglio we may be assured the matter will not go away for some time.

El Sisi would have us believe that the problem started when Ethiopia broke ground nine years ago on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) across the Blue Nile.

The six-billion-dollar wall rising 155-metres above the water below and extending 1,85 kms across the valley  will make Ethiopia Africa’s largest producer of hydro electric energy and lift many of that country’s 106-million people out of poverty.

Downstream, Egypt counters that the dam will reduce the supply of water on which 100-million of its people are entirely reliant for their survival.

The third riparian country at the top end of the giant river is Sudan, where the White and Blue Niles meet in its capital Khartoum.

It too complains that the GERD will reduce its supply of Nile water. But its position is convoluted by the fact that it will buy some of the 6500 mw generated at the GERD and that the dam will reduce the flood damage it suffers annually from the Nile.

Egypt’s historical hegemony over the Nile was underpinned by agreements signed in 1929 and 1959 by the colonial power, Britain.

Ethiopia was not party to those agreements that it maintain are part of an unhappy past.

It has sought a new agreement with all eleven riparian countries – Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, and Eritrea in addition to the northern troika.

This has proved problematic because it requires more than a technical accord on water sharing.

It runs to legal, historical and trust issues that have brought the United States and Europe into the equation.

The matter has come to a head now because satellite pictures show Ethiopia is carrying out its plan to start filling the dam.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for the compromise he showed in forging a peace with neighboring Eritrea, has been stubborn on this issue. He refuses to tell Egypt how much water will be allowed to flow downstream from the GERD.

Egypt wants this and more, nothing less than an agreement on how much water it can rely on in times of drought and an agreement on the very definition of a drought.

There is also divergence over the timing of the filling.

Ethiopia says it could complete this process in three years but offers a compromise of taking four to seven years. 

Egypt maintains the faster this happens, the greater the impact on its farmers downstream. It is asking for Ethiopia to take at least 21years to fill the dam.

However forceful the ministers of Ahmed and El Sisi may sound in negotiations, their positions must be seen against the domestic troubles in both Ethiopia, which has had to postpone for a year elections scheduled for August and Egypt which has had to commit its full military capability to fighting insurgents in the Sinai.

El Sisi’s claim to be fighting for the very existence of his people must be measured against the real beneficiaries of the Nile water – the factory owner and big farmers who are all part of the power elite that keep him where he is.

Ahmed, for his part, cannot back down on a project financed by loans and donations from a public that still vividly remembers the civil war and famine that turned it into a basket case.

The GERD is an integral part in Ethiopia continuing on its upward trajectory.

ends

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It arrived as President Donald Trump suspended U.S. funding of the UN health body pending investigation of how it has handled the COVID 19 pandemic.

The arrival in Ethiopia of a million facemasks, goggles, gloves, gowns and other equipment shows the World Health Organisation is getting on with fighting coronavirus while President Donald Trump plays politics and tries to re-write history.

In January Trump  praised China’s efforts, particularly its transparency, in fighting COVID 19.

Now, in seeking to deflect mounting criticism of his inactivity for weeks after being warned about the pandemic, he has resorted to blaming China and the WHO for their handling of it.

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The country’s electoral board will announce a new timeline after the pandemic ends.

The election will be a crucial test of the reformist agenda of Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who is dismantling on the most repressive systems in Africa and mending fences with his neighbours.

The postponement is supported by some of Ethiopia’s opposition politicians who oppose Ahmed freeing political prisoners, allowing the return of exiles and lifting restrictions on journalists.

The Horn of Africa has 25 confirmed cases of COVID 19.

Ethiopia has closed schools and restricted public gatherings as have most countries on the planet trying to curb the spread of the pandemic.

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The East African country has 19 patients infected with the coronavirus.

The decision to release the prisoners was taken by the national task force to tackle COVID 19 which is lead by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

The premier has launched a nationwide fund raising drive to fight the spread of the the virus and prepare the nation to deal with a worst case scenario.

Ethiopia, along with Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt and South Africa have been named by the World Health Organization as the African countries that will probably be worst hit by COVID 19 because of the number of people passing through them.

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Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government lauds the Sudanese administration for not endorsing the Arab League position.

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Last week Ethiopia deplored what it called the United States meddling in the controversy over the Grand Renaissance Dam its building across the Blue Nile.

Egypt brought the US into the process when it was unable to get Ethiopian assurances that the flow of water downstream would not be affected the by dam.

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is on a tour of seven Arab countries following the support for its position by Arab League foreign ministers.

Ethiopia accuses the ministers of  supporting a fellow member rather than dealing with the facts of the matter. 

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President Donald Trump’s foreign policy point man came virtually empty handed to counter China’s growing influence in continent he is trying to court.

Ironically Mike Pompeo’s last stop on his three- nation safari was Addis Ababa which has China written all over it.

The airport where he landed and the highway that carried him into the city are both built by China, as is the metro system, the modern railway to Djibouti, factories and the African Union headquarters where he saw the president of the continental organization.

The US Secretary Of State promised $8-million to fight a plague of locusts in East Africa and the Horn.

But he came with no new investment initiatives in a continent largely ignored by his administration.

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Talks in Washington, aimed at preparing for final agreement by heads of state at the end of this month are not making progress.

Brokering  the talks, the US is trying to put a brave face on the crawling negotiations.

Treasure Secretary Steve Mnuchin says technical experts are doing their job.

But he can’t point to any concrete progress.

The Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile will turn Ethiopia into Africa’s power generating giant.

But Sudan and Egypt downstream fear their vital interests are at stake.

Matters are complicated by  a latest report of Uganda planning a dam across the Nile.

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A pledging conference in Rome next week will try to raise $70 million to pay for the impact of the swarms.

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Unusually heavy rains late last year provided ideal breeding conditions for the destert locusts in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia.

The hoppers grew into locusts making the worst swarms in a quarter of a century.

The increase in numbers and density means theiy could increase 500-fold by mid year.

There are fears the swarms will move westward from the Horn of Africa into Uganda and other countries. 

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The Nobel Peace Prize laureate studied in the capital at the Tshwane University of Technology.

Abiy Ahmed could not have known as a student at the Tshwane University of Technology that one day he’s be welcomed back to Pretoria with a 21 gun salute as the premier of Ethiopia.

He and his host President Cyril Ramaphosa clearly enjoyed one-another’s company as they presided over a press conference after their talks and the signing of a number of bilateral agreements.

Ahmed strongly advocates building on trade tied with South Africa, which he knows from personal experience has a great deal of expertise to offer his country

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On his official visit to South Africa Nobel-Peace-Prize-laureate Ahmed will attend the ANC’s birthday celebration in Kimberley tomorrow and have substantial talks with Ramaphosa in Pretoria on Sunday.

Assuming the African Union  chair next month, President Cyril Ramaphosa needs to be up to speed on the continent’s largest hydro project.

Talks in Addis Ababa broke up this week without agreement between Ethiopia, building the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile, and the countries downstream Sudan and Egypt.

Dependent on the Nile for 90% of its water needs, Egypt wants Ethiopia to take 12 to 21 years to fill the dam.

Ethiopia maintains this should take four to seven years. 

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