It is pretty much common cause among strategic analysts that the next world war will be fought over water .

The argument that oil might be the casus belli has been dealt a body blow by the Covid 19 lockdown.

The black stuff remains vital to economic prosperity – important enough, certainly to take up arms over it.

But in the last three months as the economy was forced to take a backseat to public health, the price of oil dropped below zero.

And through the worst times since the Second World War,  the clear stuff has remained as vital to life itself as ever it did.

The most dramatic example of this is the battle over the water in Africa’s longest river stretch 6650 kms from south to .

President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his capacity as revolving chairman of the African Union, presided over a virtual summit yesterday seeking agreement on the use of  the Nile.

The three parties in the thick of things – Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt – agreed to continue pursuing an accord.

That is obviously better than having any of them walk off in a huff.

But they are still a considerable distance from finding an African solution to this existential African problem.

We may take comfort from Egypt asserting that it will not go to war over the Nile.

But since President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has involved both the United Nations Security Council and the Arab, in addition to the African Union, in this imbroglio we may be assured the matter will not go away for some time.

El Sisi would have us believe that the problem started when Ethiopia broke ground nine years ago on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) across the Blue Nile.

The six-billion-dollar wall rising 155-metres above the water below and extending 1,85 kms across the valley  will make Ethiopia Africa’s largest producer of hydro electric energy and lift many of that country’s 106-million people out of poverty.

Downstream, Egypt counters that the dam will reduce the supply of water on which 100-million of its people are entirely reliant for their survival.

The third riparian country at the top end of the giant river is Sudan, where the White and Blue Niles meet in its capital Khartoum.

It too complains that the GERD will reduce its supply of Nile water. But its position is convoluted by the fact that it will buy some of the 6500 mw generated at the GERD and that the dam will reduce the flood damage it suffers annually from the Nile.

Egypt’s historical hegemony over the Nile was underpinned by agreements signed in 1929 and 1959 by the colonial power, Britain.

Ethiopia was not party to those agreements that it maintain are part of an unhappy past.

It has sought a new agreement with all eleven riparian countries – Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, and Eritrea in addition to the northern troika.

This has proved problematic because it requires more than a technical accord on water sharing.

It runs to legal, historical and trust issues that have brought the United States and Europe into the equation.

The matter has come to a head now because satellite pictures show Ethiopia is carrying out its plan to start filling the dam.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for the compromise he showed in forging a peace with neighboring Eritrea, has been stubborn on this issue. He refuses to tell Egypt how much water will be allowed to flow downstream from the GERD.

Egypt wants this and more, nothing less than an agreement on how much water it can rely on in times of drought and an agreement on the very definition of a drought.

There is also divergence over the timing of the filling.

Ethiopia says it could complete this process in three years but offers a compromise of taking four to seven years. 

Egypt maintains the faster this happens, the greater the impact on its farmers downstream. It is asking for Ethiopia to take at least 21years to fill the dam.

However forceful the ministers of Ahmed and El Sisi may sound in negotiations, their positions must be seen against the domestic troubles in both Ethiopia, which has had to postpone for a year elections scheduled for August and Egypt which has had to commit its full military capability to fighting insurgents in the Sinai.

El Sisi’s claim to be fighting for the very existence of his people must be measured against the real beneficiaries of the Nile water – the factory owner and big farmers who are all part of the power elite that keep him where he is.

Ahmed, for his part, cannot back down on a project financed by loans and donations from a public that still vividly remembers the civil war and famine that turned it into a basket case.

The GERD is an integral part in Ethiopia continuing on its upward trajectory.

ends

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Kagame denies claims that Rwandan troops have been deployed to its neighboring state.

Rwanda and Burundi fell out five years ago over an attempted coup on President Pierre Nkurunziza and have been at loggerheads ever since.

Local and foreign NGOs in the eastern DRC say Burundian and Rwandese troops are fighting alongside rival militia.

Thousands have been displaced in renewed violence this month.

President Paul Kagame insists there’s not a single Rwandan soldier in eastern DRC.

Burundi’s spokesman Jean-Claude Karerwa  says his country does not deploy troops in Africa except at the request of the African Union or the United Nations.

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Washington-based pressure group Human Rights Watch accuses the forces of killing and  raping people they’ve arrested.

Human Rights Watch says at least two people suspected of breaking the lockdown were shot dead by security forces in the southern district of Nyanza.

People accused of breaking the lockdown have been detained in football stadia, says the pressure group, and it is there that the soldiers raped the women.

Journalists and bloggers who reported on the abuses have been arrested.

Rwanda’s been praised for the swift action taken to curb the COVID 19 infections. To date it has had 176 confirmed infections and no deaths

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Soldiers are accused of brutally enforcing the stay home order. They shot dead two men taking a walk outside.

In addition to raping women, Rwandan soldiers are accused of beating men and looting civilians’ property.

One woman told journalists a soldier forced his way into her home and beat her husband before stealing her possessions.

When she tried to intervene, he raped her.

Rwandan military acknowledge three arrests of alleged rapists.

They say the two men shot by soldiers had tried to attack them.

Rwanda has recorded 84 cases of COVID19.

The lockdown has been extended for a further fortnight until April 19 

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Rawdans will, therefore spend the Easter holiday as home, permitted to leave only to buy food medicine or essential supplies.

ends intro

Rwanda has 82 confirmed COVID 19 infections. The figures went up by eight overnight.

It’s the highest in a region where Kenya has 81, Uganda 44, Tanzania 19 and Burundi two.

South Sudan has no recorded cases but also has no record of testing.

The heavy-handed Rwanda President has had not trouble enforcing the lockdown which has closed land borders and airports.

How he restores the economy driving prosperity and change in his crowded, mountainous country is a problem for another day

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The man is not identified but his death has been confirmed by the local mayor.

The death in the Nyabarongo River has surprised even those who know the reputation of President Paul Kagame’s government for vigorously enforcing the law.

The unidentified man was fishing in the river in defiance of the lockdown.

Mayor Alice Kayitsi of the Kamonyi region in the south of the country says the victim was one of the few people not respecting the directive.

The 40 cases of COVID 19 among Rwanda’s 12 million people is the highest in the region although no deaths have been recorded.

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Presidents Yoweri Museveni and Paul kagame have signed an extradition treaty aimed at stopping subversive activities by their respective nationals.

Presidents Joao Lourenco of Angola and Felix Tshisikedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo witnessed the signing of the extradition treaty.

The four leaders’ summit agreed that Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni will verify Rwandan claims of hostile activities on their border.

Within 15 days of  Museveni publishing his findings, he’ll be back at Gatuna/Katuna with Rwandan President Paul Kagame to talk about opening borders and normalizing relations.

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Residents complain they have not received the promised compensation.

Kigali authorities say the hundreds of houses have been destroyed to save lives.

At least 45 Rwandans have died from lighting strikes, landslides and other rain-related incidents  in the past three months.

With more heavy rain expected in coming days, houses near wetlands in danger of being destroyed by mudslides or flooding are being demolished.

Rwanda, known as the land of a thousand hills, is heavily reliant on agriculture and hydro power.

The United Nations says the weather in Rwanda has become more and more unpredictable. This has left  the country highly vulnerable to natural disasters 

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He was speaking at the United Nations General Assembly in New York as the first of migrants started arriving in Rwanda.

Rwanda’s taking in the migrants as part of a deal with the African Union and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees.

Most of them are from the Horn of Africa.

Libya reached a deal with the European Union to keep the migrants from crossing the Mediterranean into their territory.

President Paul Kagame insists his efforts to end the migrants’ misery in Libya does not involve him  taking any money from the EU 

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500 of them, mostly from the Horn of Africa, will be flown in Uganda in coming weeks.

Rwanda first offered to take migrants from Libya when television footage nearly two years ago showed some of them being sold off as slaves.

The United Nations High Commission for Refugees says nearly 5000 people are living in parlous conditions in Libyan detention camps.

It’s appealed to navies saving migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean to Europe not to send them to Libya.

The migrants being taken by Rwanda include many children and women in vulnerable positions.

The Rwandan government insists its not being paid for taking in these refugees.

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