It is pretty much common cause among strategic analysts that the next world war will be fought over water .

The argument that oil might be the casus belli has been dealt a body blow by the Covid 19 lockdown.

The black stuff remains vital to economic prosperity – important enough, certainly to take up arms over it.

But in the last three months as the economy was forced to take a backseat to public health, the price of oil dropped below zero.

And through the worst times since the Second World War,  the clear stuff has remained as vital to life itself as ever it did.

The most dramatic example of this is the battle over the water in Africa’s longest river stretch 6650 kms from south to .

President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his capacity as revolving chairman of the African Union, presided over a virtual summit yesterday seeking agreement on the use of  the Nile.

The three parties in the thick of things – Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt – agreed to continue pursuing an accord.

That is obviously better than having any of them walk off in a huff.

But they are still a considerable distance from finding an African solution to this existential African problem.

We may take comfort from Egypt asserting that it will not go to war over the Nile.

But since President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has involved both the United Nations Security Council and the Arab, in addition to the African Union, in this imbroglio we may be assured the matter will not go away for some time.

El Sisi would have us believe that the problem started when Ethiopia broke ground nine years ago on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) across the Blue Nile.

The six-billion-dollar wall rising 155-metres above the water below and extending 1,85 kms across the valley  will make Ethiopia Africa’s largest producer of hydro electric energy and lift many of that country’s 106-million people out of poverty.

Downstream, Egypt counters that the dam will reduce the supply of water on which 100-million of its people are entirely reliant for their survival.

The third riparian country at the top end of the giant river is Sudan, where the White and Blue Niles meet in its capital Khartoum.

It too complains that the GERD will reduce its supply of Nile water. But its position is convoluted by the fact that it will buy some of the 6500 mw generated at the GERD and that the dam will reduce the flood damage it suffers annually from the Nile.

Egypt’s historical hegemony over the Nile was underpinned by agreements signed in 1929 and 1959 by the colonial power, Britain.

Ethiopia was not party to those agreements that it maintain are part of an unhappy past.

It has sought a new agreement with all eleven riparian countries – Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, and Eritrea in addition to the northern troika.

This has proved problematic because it requires more than a technical accord on water sharing.

It runs to legal, historical and trust issues that have brought the United States and Europe into the equation.

The matter has come to a head now because satellite pictures show Ethiopia is carrying out its plan to start filling the dam.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for the compromise he showed in forging a peace with neighboring Eritrea, has been stubborn on this issue. He refuses to tell Egypt how much water will be allowed to flow downstream from the GERD.

Egypt wants this and more, nothing less than an agreement on how much water it can rely on in times of drought and an agreement on the very definition of a drought.

There is also divergence over the timing of the filling.

Ethiopia says it could complete this process in three years but offers a compromise of taking four to seven years. 

Egypt maintains the faster this happens, the greater the impact on its farmers downstream. It is asking for Ethiopia to take at least 21years to fill the dam.

However forceful the ministers of Ahmed and El Sisi may sound in negotiations, their positions must be seen against the domestic troubles in both Ethiopia, which has had to postpone for a year elections scheduled for August and Egypt which has had to commit its full military capability to fighting insurgents in the Sinai.

El Sisi’s claim to be fighting for the very existence of his people must be measured against the real beneficiaries of the Nile water – the factory owner and big farmers who are all part of the power elite that keep him where he is.

Ahmed, for his part, cannot back down on a project financed by loans and donations from a public that still vividly remembers the civil war and famine that turned it into a basket case.

The GERD is an integral part in Ethiopia continuing on its upward trajectory.

ends

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Donors are growing increasingly angry at the growing number of human and civil rights violations in Tanzania 

John Magafuli’s intention is reported in the newsletter Africa Confidential by journalist Erick Kabendera who was detained for seven months at the President’s behest.

The country which received the second largest chunk of overseas development aid is having to finance its own budget now because of funds withheld.

Tanzania’s largest donor partners are Japan, the Scandinavian countries, Britain and Netherlands.

They’re concerned about the closing political and democratic space in Tanzania, the gagging of Magafuli’s critics and his ultra conservative approach to LGBT righthand schoolgirl pregnancies.

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The UN health are says its requires the information to make a proper risk assessment.

Heavily reliant on tourism, Tanzania is reluctant to be associated with the EBOLA outbreak in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo that has sickened  more than 3000 people and killed more than 2000.

The World Health Organization has sought confirmation from Tanzanian authorities about three cases in that country – one of them in the capital Dar Es Salaam.

The EBOLA outbreak in the Congo has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

At least four people have died from EBOLA  in Uganda, having carried the deadly hemorrhagic disease  across the border.  

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This despite a plea by the United Nations High Commission for Refugees for Tanzania to respect international conventions on the rights of those seeking shelter.

The Burundians fled into Uganda in 2015 because of violence following President Pierre Nkurunziza contesting an unconstitutional third term in office.

Tanzania’s Home Affairs Minister Kangi Lugola says there is now peace in Burundi.

He’s brought his Burundia counterpart Pascal Barandagiye to warn the refugees in the camps in southwest Tanzania to come home.

Tanzania maintains the UNHCR is not meeting the agreement reached last year to return 2000 refugees a month to Burundi    

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It was  seized last Friday following a Gauteng High Court ruling in favour of a Namibian-born farmer seeking $33-million in compensation for nationalization of his farm by Tanzanian authorities decades ago.

The farmer, who choses not to be named, brought the case to South Africa because it is signatory of the international convention on the recognition and enforcement of foreign arbitration.

There has been no official statements from either the South African or Tanzanian governments.

The impounded plane is leased by Air Tanzania, which was revived by President John Magafuli and started flying  to South Africa  two months ago. 

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He’ll also attend the summit in Tanzania of the 15-nation Southern African Development Community.

Tomorrow’s state visit is at the invitation of Tanzanian President John Magufuli ,

He and his South African counterpart Cyril Ramaphosa will discuss regional, continental and global issues of mutual interest.

They will reaffirm their commitment to cooperating on multilateral affairs.

Ramaphosa will visit Morogoro where 70 Tanzanians died last Sunday when a petrol tanker  exploded.

South Africa has historical ties with this town in eastern Tanzania.

Many ANC cadres in exile were trained at the Solomon Mahlangu academy near there and the party’s first national consultative congress was held there 50 years ago. 

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He was speaking at the mass funeral for the victims, many of who were burned beyond recognition.

Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa says the Tanzanian government will provide gravestones for those killed by the tanker explosion once their bodies have been identified using DNA examination.

President John Magafuli says government will pay the medical expenses of the more than 70 people badly burned in the petrol flames.

There have been calls for survivors of the explosion at Morogoro 200 kms west of the capital Dar Es Salaam to be prosecuted to deter people from trying to syphon petrol from overturned tankers.

Magufuli says this not the time to judge anyone.  

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Plain-clothed police abducted him from his home on Monday and have not revealed his whereabouts.

Tanzanian authorities say they’re investigating the citizenship of journalist Erick Kabendera.

He was taken from his home in Dar es Salaam  and all mobile phones were removed by his abductors.

Kabendera’s clients include the Guardian in Britain which has joined the chorus for his release.

The hashtag   #FreeErickKabendera has gone viral in Tanzania.

His investigative pieces have often irked President John Magufuli – the latest being a report of splits within the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party that won elections four years ago.

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The case has outraged a country that has retained the death penalty but has not seen an execution in 25 years.

The family of 14-year-old Sperius Eradius refused to bury his body until the teacher Respicius Mtazangira was arrested. 

The pupil at a Bukoba town secondary school was accused of stealing from a teacher.

He was hit with a blunt object.

The sentence handed down by judge Lamec Mlacha reflects the anger felt at the deadly assault.

Corporal punishment is still permitted in Tanzania, but under strict conditions.

Four strokes may be administered but only by the headmaster or an appointed teacher with the headmaster present. 

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They arrested one man who is believed to be a close relative of three of  the children, aged between two and nine years.

Four of the ten children kidnapped in Tanzania’s southwest area of Njomba  have been rescued.

They were taken while their parents were shopping at a night market.

Their abduction is linked to witchcraft.

Teeth, ears and privates  parts were removed.

This is not connected to the albino killings in Tanzania were body parts are sold in the belief that they pass good fortune to the possessors.

Police say they are both pursuing the perpetrators and are engaged in an education campaign persuading traditional healers not to deal in body  parts. 

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