Egypt fumes downstream about Ethiopia starting to fill the dam before a comprehensive agreement by riparian countries and leaves the tripartite talks, Sudan is given pause about longer-term benefits but expresses misgivings about the  safety of the multi-billion dollar project.

South Africa, as current chair of the African Union, insists that talks are back on track and urges the parties to stay at the table.

Ethiopian Premier Abiy Ahmed says he will be content with a guiding agreement with Sudan and Egypt on how much water has to go through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

He has solid domestic support for the project that will turn his country into Africa’s largest hydro-electrical generator and bring power to 60 000 Ethiopians currently subsisting without electricity.

Ethiopia’s most popular musician Teddy Afro has recorded a hit song entitled “How Can We Negotiate the Nile”.

The Ethiopian highlands provide more than 85% of the Nile water. That country was excluded from colonial era agreements giving Egypt and Sudan rights to that water. 

This historical wrong cannot prevent Ethiopia using its natural resources, Ahmed maintains.

Downstream where 90 percent of Egypt’s  100-million people rely on the Nile water for survival, President Abdel Fatah Al Sisi, has burned up the hotline to his South African counterpart Cyril Ramaphosa, AU chair, and to his other international contacts to insist on harder language in the form of a binding agreement.

There has been a warning from Washington that development aid from the U.S to Ethiopia could be reduced if such an agreement on the Nile water is not reached.

This accord, says El Sisi, has to specify what Egypt can expect in drought years. 

The water ministry says Ethiopia is not accepting its legal obligation, so Egypt has withdrawn from talks to have further consultations on regulations about the operation of the dam. 

Cairo also wants a concrete legal mechanism for settling disputes.

“Egypt and Sudan demanded meetings be suspended for internal consultations on the Ethiopian proposal, which contravenes what was agreed upon during the African Union summit,” says the Egyptian ministry.

Sudan’s interim authority comprising military and civilian elements has been circumspect.

Their immediate problem is flooding, not drought.

A year after losing more than 60 people to floods the country is again experiencing  an inundation caused by heavy rains that has destroyed thousands of homes and decimated crops around the capital Khartoum.

When fully operational the GERD will control that to some extent.

Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia resumed trilateral negotiations on Monday. This follows the second extraordinary meeting on July 21 chaired by Ramaphosa

Today’s statement from the Department of International Relations and Cooperation in Pretoria says South Africa commends the Parties to the GERD for their commitment to finding an inclusive and durable agreement through dialogue and negotiation. 

“An amicable outcome would be beneficial to all the countries of the Blue Nile River and would boost regional cooperation and integration,” it adds

 Speaking on behalf of President Cyril Ramaphosa, Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor says: “As the Parties engage in this critical phase of the negotiations, we would like to urge them to continue to be guided by the spirit of Pan-African solidarity and fraternity, which has characterised the AU-led negotiations process on the GERD. In this regard, it is important that the Parties should display magnanimity and understanding of each other’s interests so as to move the process forward.”

She said: “South Africa encourages the Parties to remain engaged, and wishes to reassure them of the unremitting support and cooperation of the AU Bureau, and the entire membership of the AU.” It is expected that a report of the ongoing negotiations on outstanding technical and legal issues will be presented to President Ramaphosa in the next two weeks.

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It is pretty much common cause among strategic analysts that the next world war will be fought over water .

The argument that oil might be the casus belli has been dealt a body blow by the Covid 19 lockdown.

The black stuff remains vital to economic prosperity – important enough, certainly to take up arms over it.

But in the last three months as the economy was forced to take a backseat to public health, the price of oil dropped below zero.

And through the worst times since the Second World War,  the clear stuff has remained as vital to life itself as ever it did.

The most dramatic example of this is the battle over the water in Africa’s longest river stretch 6650 kms from south to .

President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his capacity as revolving chairman of the African Union, presided over a virtual summit yesterday seeking agreement on the use of  the Nile.

The three parties in the thick of things – Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt – agreed to continue pursuing an accord.

That is obviously better than having any of them walk off in a huff.

But they are still a considerable distance from finding an African solution to this existential African problem.

We may take comfort from Egypt asserting that it will not go to war over the Nile.

But since President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has involved both the United Nations Security Council and the Arab, in addition to the African Union, in this imbroglio we may be assured the matter will not go away for some time.

El Sisi would have us believe that the problem started when Ethiopia broke ground nine years ago on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) across the Blue Nile.

The six-billion-dollar wall rising 155-metres above the water below and extending 1,85 kms across the valley  will make Ethiopia Africa’s largest producer of hydro electric energy and lift many of that country’s 106-million people out of poverty.

Downstream, Egypt counters that the dam will reduce the supply of water on which 100-million of its people are entirely reliant for their survival.

The third riparian country at the top end of the giant river is Sudan, where the White and Blue Niles meet in its capital Khartoum.

It too complains that the GERD will reduce its supply of Nile water. But its position is convoluted by the fact that it will buy some of the 6500 mw generated at the GERD and that the dam will reduce the flood damage it suffers annually from the Nile.

Egypt’s historical hegemony over the Nile was underpinned by agreements signed in 1929 and 1959 by the colonial power, Britain.

Ethiopia was not party to those agreements that it maintain are part of an unhappy past.

It has sought a new agreement with all eleven riparian countries – Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, and Eritrea in addition to the northern troika.

This has proved problematic because it requires more than a technical accord on water sharing.

It runs to legal, historical and trust issues that have brought the United States and Europe into the equation.

The matter has come to a head now because satellite pictures show Ethiopia is carrying out its plan to start filling the dam.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for the compromise he showed in forging a peace with neighboring Eritrea, has been stubborn on this issue. He refuses to tell Egypt how much water will be allowed to flow downstream from the GERD.

Egypt wants this and more, nothing less than an agreement on how much water it can rely on in times of drought and an agreement on the very definition of a drought.

There is also divergence over the timing of the filling.

Ethiopia says it could complete this process in three years but offers a compromise of taking four to seven years. 

Egypt maintains the faster this happens, the greater the impact on its farmers downstream. It is asking for Ethiopia to take at least 21years to fill the dam.

However forceful the ministers of Ahmed and El Sisi may sound in negotiations, their positions must be seen against the domestic troubles in both Ethiopia, which has had to postpone for a year elections scheduled for August and Egypt which has had to commit its full military capability to fighting insurgents in the Sinai.

El Sisi’s claim to be fighting for the very existence of his people must be measured against the real beneficiaries of the Nile water – the factory owner and big farmers who are all part of the power elite that keep him where he is.

Ahmed, for his part, cannot back down on a project financed by loans and donations from a public that still vividly remembers the civil war and famine that turned it into a basket case.

The GERD is an integral part in Ethiopia continuing on its upward trajectory.

ends

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Egypt’s first democratically elected president has been jailed since being deposed in 2013 by his defense minister Abdel Fatah el Sisi who is now the country’s president.

Egyptian authorities have declared a state of emergency in Mohamed Moursi’s birthplace El Adwah where he will be buried today according to Muslim practice.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Qatar’sEmir Sheikh Tamin Bin Hammad Al Thani have both referred to Moursi as a martyr.

Members of the now outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, that he led to victory in 2012 elections, describe his death a murder, saying he was denied medical treatment in prison for diabetes and high blood pressure.

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They and another rights watchdog Amnesty  International are calling for an independent investigation into his treatment during the six year imprisonment of the 67 years old who suffered diabetes hypertension and kidney disease.

Mohamed Moursi’s supporters say his death from a heart attack in court is a murder.

British MPs and lawyers who visited him last year say his treatment amounts to torture.

Moursi was held in solitary confinement and allowed only three family visits during his six- year detention following his ouster in a 2013 coup by his Defence  Minister Abdel Fatah El Sisi who is now Egypt’s President.

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Egypt’s first democratically elected president  was buried in Cairo, hours after collapsing and dying in court yesterday where he was facing espionage charges.

Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El Sisi is wary of unrest following the death of Mohamed Moursi whom he ousted in a 2013 coup.

A state of emergency was declared in Moursi’s birthplace of El Adwah where his family planned to bury him.

Authorities prevented that and his body was interred in Cairo with a few family members present.

El Sisi faces pressure from human rights groups to conduct an independent investigation into the treatment of Moursi who has been jailed since the coup that toppled him after barely a year in office.

His family and supporters say he was denied proper medical treatment for diabetes and high blood pressure.

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Their final statement after their 32nd summit in Addis Ababa calls on the United Nations to show solidarity and assist in providing funds for peace and security in Africa.

ends intro

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who attended the African Union summit, says the world can learn from Africa’s humane treatment of refugees.

Sub Sahara Africa has a quarter of the world’s refugees.

But it is the conflicts and dire economic conditions that drive these people from their homes that Africa must address.

The new AU president, Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah El Sisi spoke of building a stronger continental organisation capable of handling the crises it faces.

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Leaders of the 55-nation continental grouping voted to pass this ceremonial role to South Africa when Egypt’s turn ends in 2020.

South Africa will be serving the second year of its rotating membership of the United Nations Security Council next year.

So having the presidency of the African Union will give South Africa a particularly significant international role.

The last time South Africa held the AU leadership was in 2002 when Thabo Mbeki was president.

Cyril Ramaphosa, who is expected to be South Africa’s president next year, is already being pushed to campaign for  human rights – particularly in Africa – if and when he succeeds Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah El Sisi who is expected to emphasize security and peacekeeping during his AU presidency 

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Continental leaders, including President Cyril Ramaphosa, will urge him to push administrative and financial reforms introduced by his predecessor Rawanda’s President Paul Kagame.

But the former Egyptian military leader’s expected to stress security and peacekeeping issues.

Five years ago the African Union suspended Egypt after Abdel Fatah El Sisi’s coup unseated Mohamed Moursi .

El Sisi’s elevation to the ceremonial leadership of the union marks his full rehabilitation.

He’s dealing with significant domestic security  challenges that are expected to colour the flavour of his AU presidency that will concentrate on dealing with migration and displaced persons from and within Africa.

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He was speaking in Cairo where he’s had talks with Egptian President Abdel Fatah El Sisi.

Omar Al Bashir, who came to power in a coup d’etat 30 years ago, had no truck with Arab Spring.

He decisively crushed any protest in 2011, but he’s not managed to repeat that this time.

Demonstrations against food price hike and currency shortages have become the greatest threat he’s yet faced as they’ve transformed into calls for his departure.

Sunday saw street protests in 50 centres – the largest in living memory.

Al Bashir, who has twice left the country this month in search of financial support, says the demonstrators are making the same appeals and widely using social media just as they did in the Arab Spring. 

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This comes as he draws domestic and international pressure for what he calls his brute force response to terror in the northern Sinai.

After bombing the Coptic cathedral in Cairo last December, killing 29 people , so-called Islamic State called Coptic Christians their favourite prey.

On Palm Sunday, the terrorists struck churches in Tanta and Alexandria, leaving 45 dead.

Although the terrorists have moved on to attacking Sufi Muslim mosques, the copts, who make up between 10 and 15 percent of Egypt’s population, say they are poorly protected by the government of former military strongman Abdel Fatah El Sisi.

He’s determined to keep them safe this Christmas and stop IS terrorists leaking out of the remote Sinai into Egypt’s cities.

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