Jasmine Opperman and Joseph Hanlon are adamant that on this matter one should not believe everything one reads.

Since what one reads comes from areas that have been rendered hors de contact by jihadis destroying the mobile phone masts, then incredulity makes good sense.

What we can do now is work out where we are and how we got here.

We know that at least 2 500 people have died and more than 7 000 have been displaced in Cabo Delgado since the start of 2020.

It is self evident that corruption in Mozambique has hamstrung government’s capacity to do anything to control it, let alone stop it.

I tend to believe the Catholic Church on Mozambique.

The Church of Rome has an impressive record on the former Portuguese colony..

St Edigio, the Vatican’s ministry of foreign affairs, mediated an end to Mozambique’s 15-year civil war in which both sides fought themselves to exhaustion and by its end in 1992 had dragged the country to very bottom of the list of world’s poorest countries.

So the Catholic Bishops’ conference can draw on past form when it in explains that the insurrection in Cabo Delgado is caused by people seizing control of the country and its resources and exploiting these at the cost of its development.

The bishops, in their statement this week call for the creation of jobs, particularly for the youth, as a way of emerging from the morass of violence being fed by the desperation and marginalization of the province’s people.

Easier said than done? That is ever the case in situations where the government is forced to rely on the assistance of neighbors and other friends further afield.

President Felipe Nyusi has been too proud to accept this help.

He feels it betrays the weakness and venality in his government.

He would do well to accept the United States, Portugal and the European Union training his military to counter the jihadis.

While he does this, he should not delay in taking the socio economic steps suggested by the bishops.

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The withering full report of the EU observer mission finds fraud at almost every stage the process that return President Felipe Nyusi and his Frelimo Party to power.

Back in October, the interim report of the European Union observer mission found Mozambique’s elections were held in unfair conditions, using unjustifiable state resources by the incumbents campaigns and marred by widespread violence.

These conclusions were at odds with African observers who gave the process  a thumbs up.

The EU report, which ridicules the electoral commission, will threaten the shaky peace between Frelimo and its traditional opponent Renamo stitched together before the election.

The result has been legally challenged. 

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An NGO watching Mozambique’s election last week reports widespread ballot box stuffing in favor of Pretoria Felipe Nyusi.

In some areas the official turnout is recorded at 75% of registered voters with four faiths of them voting for Nyusi.

The Mozambique Political Process Bulletin says results have come from 138 of Mozambique 160 districts.

At least districts have not recorded results because of an illegal ban on elections observers. Results in a dozen districts are incomplete.

Some polling stations  in Frelimo’s stronghold Gaza Province record no queues throughout voting day although large numbers of ballot papers for the ruling Frelimo Party were recorded. 

During counting at some rural voting stations ballot powers were founded folded into each other. 

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President Felipe Nyusi is expected to extend his term in office, but Renamo leader Ossufo Momade looks set to become the first non-Frelimo state governor.

Some opposition parties are crying foul before the early morning voting queues in Mozambique disperse.

They point to the thousands of election observers unable to be accredited and an imbalance in state-funding of parties contesting the poll.

The election, which has been marred by violence during campaigning,  will severely test the fragile peace deal signed only two months ago by Frelimo and Renamo.

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More than 20 people – most of them Frelimo supporters – have died in crashes.

The latest fatality is a child who ran out of the schoolyard in the Gaza village of Macia to pick up political pamphlets thrown nearby. The 10-year-old was killed while returning to the premises.

27 people were injured when a truck that was carrying people from a rally addressed  by President Felipe Nyusi in Gaza overturned.

The most serious accident occurred last  month when seven people died in an overturned truck in Tete province.

All parties have been accused of crowding people into open lorries to transport huge numbers of people to rallies 

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President Felipe Nyusi and Renamo’s Ossufo Momade inked the deal in Maputo yesterday.

This is the second time Renamo has formalized  a peace deal with Mozambique’s Frelimo Government.

The late Afonso Dhlakama signed the first in Rome 26 years ago after the Vatican mediated an end to the 16-year civil war that brought the country to its knees.

Losing successive elections drove Renamo to take up weapons and go back into the bush.

Yesterday’s peace follows the death last year of Dhlakama.

Guests at yesterday’s signing, including President Cyril Ramaphosa and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame,  heard that Renamo plans to do better in October’s election. 

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The Maputo government’s hoping money from the international donor conference in Beira at the end of this month will come with fewer strings attached.

The IMF is taking $118-million from its Rapid Credit Facility to make a loan to Mozambique.

It’s demanding budget cuts from the government of President Felipe Nyusi and the reallocation of priority spending to help the poorest citizens rebuild their homes destroyed by cyclones Idai and Kenneth.

The World Bank’s making a $350-million grant  Mozambique that will be tightly controlled to ensure spending  infrastructure repair, re-establishing crops, food security, disease control, social assistance and building early warning systems.

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The jihadis, who support so-called Islamic State, were making their presence known after President Felipe Nyusi visited the disaster scene. 

The terrorists have been active in Cabo Delgado province, beheading villagers and attacking government soldiers.

Locals have long complained about being marginalised by the cash-strapped government. 

President Felipe Nyusi, visiting the areas hit by Cyclone Kenneth six days ago, urged the people to resume farming.

More than 30 000 ha. of crops have been lost to the deadly storm.

Nyusi promised to mobilise support from Mozambique’s development partners to rebuild the homes and buildings destroyed by Kenneth.  

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The big question is who will lead the Renamo movement which has both parliamentary and armed wings.

President Filipe Nyusai says he tried to fly Afonso Dlakama for  emergency medical treatment when heard the 65-year-old had suffered a heart attack.

But the Renamo leader has been hiding back in the Gorongoza mountains since 2013 and could not be reached.

The Mozambican president says the last thing Dlakama said to him at their meeting last February is that he would  to miss a step in the peace process.

Renamo fought a 16-year civil war against Frelimo that’s ruled Mozambique since 1975.

That ended in 1992, but Dlakama never gave up his fighters.

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As a burgeoning trading nation, Turkey is understandably seeking new markets.

This time, however, Erdogan was seeking practical and moral support for his battle against the moderate Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen.

He claims Gulen masterminded a botched coup attempt last year.

The cleric, exiled in the United States unequivocally denies this.

Erdogan no longer represents a country where the ring of cash registers predominates.

a series of terrorist attacks has dragged Turkey down to the level of its troubled neighbours.

The country bridging Europe and Asia has, in fact, become another Middle East trouble spot.

Bent on becoming a stronger executive president, Erdogan is seeking allies more than trading partners.

In Mozambique, he called on his Mozambican counterpart Felipe Nyusi to take action against Gulen.

Earlier in Tanzania, Erdogan warned at a joint press conference with President John Magufuli that he has evidence “that those elements who tried to topple our government are active in other countries as well.”

He was referring to African states in which Gulen’s Hizmet movement operates its international network of schools.

With Turkish government support, these establishments have helped to spread Turkish culture and influence abroad. Since the attempted coup in July 2016, however, the Turkish government has been mounting a crackdown on Gulen’s operations. Erdogan tried to drum up support for these punitive measures on his African tour.

He wants the Gulen-linked schools in Africa to be closed down, although they are the very educational establishments which are popular with Africa’s middle class.

There are some 20 Turkish schools in the Guinean capital Conakry and they have sprung up all over Africa in recent years. They an affordable alternative to French schools.

The Hizmet movement has decades of experience in supplying quality education domestically.

Erdogan’s children are graduates of Gulen schools, although the Turkish president now contends Gulen’s master plan was to educate needy students and place them in  military and public  service positions with a long-term goal of state capture.

Erdogan either has to supply convincing evidence to back up the allegations he levels against Gulen and offer alternatives, or risk being seen to be imposing on African friends and risking to bilateral relations.

Relations with Tanzania appear stable. President Magufuli has asked Turkey for loans and investment for the construction of a rail link from Dar es Salaam to Zambia. It will connect Tanzania to Burundi, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The project has been put out to tender and a Turkish construction company has a good chance of clinching the deal. Other donor countries pulled out of Tanzania following a corruption scandal there in 2015.
Erdogan’s seeking markets for the small and medium-sized companies have grown in strength in Turkey under his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). They belong to what is referred to in Turkey as the devout trading class which supports the AKP. Erdogan is looking for a foothold in markets that could become more interesting in the future. The market for Turkey’s construction industry in Africa is promising, albeit totally dwarfed by China’s involvement

ends

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