The actors that needed to be in Berlin at the weekend were all there. But the agreement they reached on Libya is as full of holes as a colander.

So much depends on what happens at the follow-up meeting in Geneva later this week.

Will the five parties named by each side in the conflict be able agree on how best to monitor the deal?

The success or failure of the deal concocted at the German-hosted deliberations will be determined by whether it can be translated into a resolution that can be unanimously adopted by United Nations Security Council.

The ultimate question, however, is who holds the economic trump card?  

Libya has confounded the best-intentioned peacemakers since the fall and killing of Muammar Gadaffi in 2011.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who hosted peace talks in Moscow a week before the Berlin gathering can hardly be said to fall into this category.

Neither, in all honesty, can German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

She was able to get the great and good to attend her talks.

But her motivation, like Putin’s, was not altruistic.

An increasing number of the desperate  people using Libya as a launching point for reaching a more secure – both physically and economically – future in Europe end up in Germany.

She has to be seen to be doing everything she can to stem this flow.

The oil-rich nation of Libya has become a poor country split between the weak United Nations-backed Government of National Accord led by Fayez Al-Sarraj and the rebel- held Benghazi in the east led by Khalifa Haftar.

Both these leaders were present in Berlin but did not overtly participate in the talks.

This was left to the leaders of Russia, Turkey, France, Egypt, Italy, the United States. and Britain.

Berlin was a convenient stopover for the World Economic Forum meeting starting in Davos, Switzerland.

Algeria, the United Arab Emirates, China, Congo Republic, United Nations, European Union and African Union all sent representatives.

En route to Berlin Al-Sarraj and Haftar stopped over the Athens for talks with the Greek government that has taken a far more active interest in Libya following the signing of a maritime and military agreement by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with Al-Sarraj.

Fears of Libya becoming a proxy war are plainly well grounded.

No surprise, therefore that the primary demand from Berlin was of non interference.

Ironically it as the interference of Turkey – whose parliament voted to allow deployment of troops to protects to GNA – and Russia playing its more muscular regional role that led to the ceasefire earlier in January.

The Berlin conference, having called on players to implement the 2011 arms embargo on Libyan combatants, urged those opposing parties to observe the ceasefire.

The conference added that sanctions will have to be imposed on those breaking this embargo – yet another issue that has to pass the UN Security Council

The only way through the impasse is by restoring the political process.

That is what has to happen in Geneva.

The biggest question is  whether Haftar, who walked out of the Moscow meeting, actually inked any document in Berlin.

He maintains he holds the whip hand when it comes to Libyan oil.

He has brought the flow of oil out of Libya to halt by preventing exports through the ports of  Brega, Ras Lanuf, Hariga, Zueitina and Sidra.

As long as  he maintains this choke-hold on the economy, he can be considered effectively to control the peace process.

Even human rights, always a major consideration, has to follow the money. 

In Berlin countries were once again urged not to return rescued migrants to the appalling conditions in the Libyan detention centers.

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This message on their website hours after leader Khalifa Haftar left Moscow without signing a ceasefire.

Libyan government leader Fayez Al Sarraj must wonder how he was played by his backer, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin who supports Khalifa  Haftar’s rebels.

They were called to Moscow to ink a ceasefire proposed last week by Erdogan and Putin.

It was clear from the start Putin could not deliver Haftar who left, saying he had to consider a few details.

The bellicose message that followed shows he intended duping the Government of National Accord while pursuing his plan to seize the capital Tripoli.

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He says this is essential to Egyptian tourism badly hit by a succession of terror attacks.

President Abdel Fattah el Sisi made his call to the Russian upper house of parliament on a visit to Moscow this week.

Russia stopped flights to Egyptian  airports three years ago after a bomb was placed aboard a Russian airline caused it to  crash on the Sinai peninsula killing all 224 people aboard.

Russia resumed flights to Cairo last April.

African skies are opening up.

Next month,Ethiopian Airlines has announced it will resume scheduled flights to Somali capital Mogadishu  for the first time in 41 years

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Five suspects, including a policeman and a quarantine officer, were arrested for allegedly facilitating their travel.

ends intro 

Nigeria’s  government agency fighting trafficking says the victims were found while trying to board a plane from Lagos to Moscow.

The children, who were unaccompanied, are now in a shelter for victims of trafficking which run by the National Agency for Prohibition of Trafficking in Persons.

Five other potential victims, also children, were stopped from boarding a flight to Russia when staff noticed they had one-way tickets.

According to the UN’s agency for migration, most of the potential sex trafficking victims arriving in Italy by sea are Nigerian.

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He was speaking at the  South African Institute for International Affairs in Johannesburg.

Dominque de Villepin says the Africa Europe partnership will be driven by crisis management.

This is evidenced in the Sahel by the security crisis posed by jihadism from  Mali to Nigeria.

There is no simple military solution to this.

The root causes are the lack of political and social inclusiveness and the accountability of administrations and elites.

Crisis management is necessary in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Horn of Africa.

De Villepin says there are wider issues.

“We are facing huge challenges and difficulties. The world’s stability is at stake. We can see it everyday. We can see it today in the decision taken by the US administration to transfer the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. We have seen it in the last week in the decision Donald Trump to renounce the nuclear agreement with Iran. The world has not sufficient backbone to be able to stand  such challenges alone, ” says de Villepin.

He believes it is necessary to reinforce the backbone of the world. 

The first of these involved reinforcing the axis of Paris, Berlin, Moscow and China to give more stability and perspective to Eurasia.

The second axis requiring reinforcement is Europe and Africa.

This will give a bigger capacity for the world to stand in front of  both local and global crisis that threaten to emerge again like in the cold war era.

There was a special mentality  and rules that applied in that era.

Today there are no regulations or any help to monitor the dificulties  that arise. 

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