That looks more and more likely it will be Goodluck Jonathan.

With more than half the ballots tallied, he trails former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari by more than half a million votes.

Goodluck Jonathan’s managed to whittle away at Muhammadu Buhari’s two-million vote lead.

But privately Jonathan’s staff don’t expect him to narrow the gap much further.

Newspapers have broken the law by publishing unofficial results from most of the remaining states showing Jonathan is likely to be the first president democratically pushed out of office.

At best, with an even stronger than expected performance in his strongholds in the Niger Delta, he is still in trouble.

The most he can hope for is denying Buhari at least a quarter of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states, thereby forcing a run off.

The post It looks like an election win for Buhari appeared first on Jean-Jacques Cornish.

It’s also warning about the likelihood of increased militancy in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta.

The military intelligence briefing was given to China’s defence minister Chang Wanguan when he visited South Africa this week.

It forecasts a further deterioration in Nigeria’s security situation with little prospect of a settlement in what it calls a prolonged armed insurgency.

Indeed there are signs of this spreading after a number of recent attacks in the capital Abuja.

It points to human rights watchdogs accusing Nigeria of violating human rights in its bid to curb the Islamist group’s terror campaign.

The South Africa report warns of increased militancy in the Niger Delta and of piracy off the Nigerian coast.

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