Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed says the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will be filled with or without an agreement with the riparian countries Sudan and Egypt who view the dam as an existential threat.

They rely on the Nile for more than 90% of the water needs in their largely desert countries.

Ahmed recalls that Ethiopia was left out of negotiations on the use of the Nile waters between Britain, as the colonial power, with Egypt and Sudan.

He maintains that building the dam, which will make Ethiopia a hydro-electrical-generating power, is its sovereign right.

His predecessors warned that they would go war to protect their access to the Nile waters. Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi subsequently ratcheted things down in favour of negotiations.

Recently though, both he and his Sudanese neighbour have resorted to bellicose language.

Egypt would not allow a drop of Nile water to be stolen from it, he said.

Sudan’s Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas warned “all options are open” in safeguarding his country’s access to the water.

Both the riparian countries and Ethiopia have in turn gone to the United Nations Security Council swapping accusations of negotiating in bad faith.

As African Union Chairman last year, President Cyril Ramaphosa attempted, without success, to mediate an agreement on the filling and operation of the GERD.

Current AU chair, Congolese President Felix Tshisikedi had a bash at mediation earlier this month that also ended in deadlock.

Al Sisi has taken yet another diplomatic initiative, sending his Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry on a six-nation African safari, hoping to win support from continental partners.

Shoukry visited the Comoros, South Africa, the DRC, Niger, Senegal and Tunisia.

In South Africa, the minister engaged in some fence mending.

He thanked President Cyril Ramaphosa for his mediation last year.

It is no secret that Egypt was highly suspicious of these efforts, suspecting that Ramaphosa was biased in favour of Ethiopia

Shoukry’s trip will be viewed favorably by African leaders who hold fast to the principle of African solutions to African problems.

However Al Sisi maintains his wish to see the United Nations, the European Union and the United States involved in trying to get Ethiopia to take a more understanding view of Egyptian and Sudanese fears.

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Kenyan farmers are posting pictures of swarms like the Biblical plague, so large that they block out the sun.

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The desert locusts have hit  eight African countries where at least 20 million people are food insecure because of the three deadly ‘C.s’ : conflict, climate change and COVID 19.

In addition to Kenya they include Somalia, Uganda, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Sudan,

They have stayed and produced a new generation because of favorable conditions including above-average rainfall.

Pesticide to eradicate or at least thin them has been blocked by the coronavirus lockdown.

The swarms generally number 150 million per square kilometer, devouring every leaf where they land. Driven by the wind they can travel 150 kilometers a day.

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Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government lauds the Sudanese administration for not endorsing the Arab League position.

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Last week Ethiopia deplored what it called the United States meddling in the controversy over the Grand Renaissance Dam its building across the Blue Nile.

Egypt brought the US into the process when it was unable to get Ethiopian assurances that the flow of water downstream would not be affected the by dam.

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is on a tour of seven Arab countries following the support for its position by Arab League foreign ministers.

Ethiopia accuses the ministers of  supporting a fellow member rather than dealing with the facts of the matter. 

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Talks in Washington, aimed at preparing for final agreement by heads of state at the end of this month are not making progress.

Brokering  the talks, the US is trying to put a brave face on the crawling negotiations.

Treasure Secretary Steve Mnuchin says technical experts are doing their job.

But he can’t point to any concrete progress.

The Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile will turn Ethiopia into Africa’s power generating giant.

But Sudan and Egypt downstream fear their vital interests are at stake.

Matters are complicated by  a latest report of Uganda planning a dam across the Nile.

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It is not clear if he will return to set up a unity government by the deadline of February 22.

South Africa’s Deputy President David Mabuza is mediating the on-off peace efforts in South Sudan.

It is stalled on the issue of the number of states in Africa’s youngest country.

At independence from Sudan in 2011, South Sudan had 10 states.

President Salva Kiir increased this number to 28 and then 32.

Riek Machar, who returned to Juba last September, maintains that at most South Sudan can have 23 states based on colonial boundaries.

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Essential for survival in Africa is being able to take the rough with the smooth.

So, after British Premier Boris Johnson told an investment conference in London that  a post-BREXIT Britain would be able to open its borders to Africa there was hardly a blink about US President  Donald Trump tipping off the Wall Street Journal in Davos that he is about to add four African countries to those subject to US travel bans.

Johnson believes the continent with some of the fastest growing economies in the world should be courted by Britain to make up on business it is losing by leaving the European Union.

Trump, by contrast believes there are redneck American votes to be won by adding Nigeria, Tanzania, Sudan and Eritrea to his list of majority-Muslim countries whose subjects find it increasingly difficult to visit the U.S.

Understandably this dichotomy from two of the continent’s oldest Western friends will drive many Africans even further behind the Great Wall of China.

Beijing’s burgeoning links with Africa are based on non-interference in the affairs of the countries with which they are doing business.

This is an extremely attractive quality among those African leaders who undemocratic, authoritarian and corrupt practices and human rights violations put them beyond the pale of traditional European partners.

A very strong message of support came from two of these this week.

France and German celebrated the anniversary of the signing of bilateral friendship treaties in 1963 and 2019 in an unprecedentedly novel way.

In South Africa, they exchanged ambassadors for the day.

German Ambassador Martin Schäffer and his French counterpart Aurèlien Lechevallier  gave an upbeat  media briefing about swapping desks for the day.

They said it was more than a  symbolic nod to the  reconciliation between the two engines of the European Union.

“Without German French reconciliation there could not have been a united Europe,” asserted Schäfer.

It was also a salutary lesson to African about the lasting value of forgiveness and reconciliation.

Both ambassadors noted this was particularly germane  to  South Africa with its troubled history.

The Franco-German example was particularly relevant at this time of commercial tension between the United State and China.

Africa needed a more robust, more united and stronger Europe to be a reliable partner.

“This is the right moment to show the convergence between Germany and France,” said Lechevallier.

“We are moving together with Africa creating investment and economic opportunities.

“There already are many French and German companies creating tens of thousands of jobs and we want South African companies to invest in France and Germany.

“Schäfer added: “It is a simple fact that Europe – and Germany and France are an integral part of that is by far Africa’s biggest read and investment partner.

“We do not come and make a quick buck.

“We come and we stay and we become corporate citizens.”

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They include Nigeria, the most populous country on the continent.

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Three years ago, President Donald Trump included Libya and Somalia among the seven majority-Muslim countries subject to a US travel ban.

The US Supreme court upheld the measure  designed to implement his clampdown on immigration.

At Davos this week, Trump tells the Wall Street journal he is considering widening that ban.

It would include Nigeria, Sudan, Tanzania and Eritrea.

An announcement could be made as early at next Monday.

There is unlikely to be a blanket ban on citizens of those countries entering the US. However, it will be much tougher for them to get US business and travel visas.

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If successful it will obviate the need for President Cyril Ramaphosa to broker further negotiations in his capacity as chair of the African Union.

Minister sfrom the three riperian countries have agreed that the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam across the Blue Nile will start being filled in July.

Taking the water level to 595 meters above sea level will continue for six to seven years during the wet season.

Water will be sent to Sudan and Egypt downstream during severe droughts.

Hydro-electric power will be generated early, making Ethiopia the major power supplier in Africa.

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Yesterday’s talks in Pretoria between Ahmed and Ramaphosa came days after talks on the dam Ethiopia is building across the Nile ended without solution in Addis Ababa.

Ethiopian premier Abiy Ahmed says he’s looking for a win-win agreement in which Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt share the Nile.

Disagreement remains about how long Ethiopia will take to fill the Grand Renaissance Dam across the Blue Nile.

President Cyril Ramaphosa says he’ll use the chair of the African Union to broker talks about this and other disputes on the continent.

“The must a peace that is grounded in African soil,” he says.”It must be pursued and led by the African Union and this is precisely what we will be aseeki9ng to advocate.”

Ramaphosa says the maxim remains African solutions to African problems

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On his official visit to South Africa Nobel-Peace-Prize-laureate Ahmed will attend the ANC’s birthday celebration in Kimberley tomorrow and have substantial talks with Ramaphosa in Pretoria on Sunday.

Assuming the African Union  chair next month, President Cyril Ramaphosa needs to be up to speed on the continent’s largest hydro project.

Talks in Addis Ababa broke up this week without agreement between Ethiopia, building the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile, and the countries downstream Sudan and Egypt.

Dependent on the Nile for 90% of its water needs, Egypt wants Ethiopia to take 12 to 21 years to fill the dam.

Ethiopia maintains this should take four to seven years. 

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