Ahmed won the coveted prize last year largely for forging a complex and difficult peace with neighboring Eritrea.

In doing so he greatly assisted stability in the Horn of Africa, one of the most dangerous hotspots on the planet.

He has yet to match domestically what he has achieved regionally.

In that respect he’s like the 1991 peace prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

She richly deserved the prize awarded for her doughty resistance to the brutal military regime in Myanmar.

Her star has faded of late because of her stubborn refusal to speak out against what is to all intents and purposes a genocide against the Rohingya people – a Muslim minority in a majority Buddhist country.

Ahmed has decided to show his muscle against the minority Tigray people.

Comprising only six percent of Ethiopia 110 million people they dominated business and politics until Ahmed from the majority  Oromo ethnic group took the helm.

The Tigrayan have a special place in Ethiopia’s history.

Legend has it their land bordering Eritrea was the home of the  Queen of Sheba.

A church in Tigray is said to house the Ark of the Covenant.

In 1991, the same year Aung San Suu Kyi won her Nobel Prize the Tigrayan led the fight to topple the cruel Derg regime in Ethiopia.

They have, of late become hugely angry at Ahmed reforms, claiming that they are becoming increasingly marginalized.

They are not the only ethnic group to oppose Ahmed’s reforms.

On November 4, Tigrayan rebels attacked a government military base.

There is no reliable indication of casualties.

Indeed the toll from three weeks of fighting is difficult to ascertain.

It is said to be hundreds, perhaps thousands.

The United Nations says if reports of attacks against civilians are true, it would amount to war crimes.

At least 40 000 Tigrayan have fled into neighboring Sudan to escape the fighting.

The Tigrayan have ratcheted up things with rocket attacks into Eritrea to the north and the Ethiopian province of Amhara to the South.

Ahmed’s assurance that the insurrection would not become a war has proved to be optimistic.

Fearful of a regional conflagration, the United Nations, European Union and African Union have all urgently called for an immediate ceasefire.

Ahmed is having none of it.

He says he will talk to the three AU envoys named to broker a peace.

Indeed he is open to negotiations with anyone except the Tigrayan leadership.

He has surrounded the Tigray capital of Mek’ele and warned residents to save themselves.

His uncompromising call to the Tigray leadership at the weekend was: “You have 72 hours to surrender.” 

He believes that Ethiopia will be pulled apart if he does not completely subdue Tigray. 

Angry and undoubtedly provoked, his bellicose language can be understood.

Nevertheless, it is not the behavior of an internationally acclaimed peacemaker.

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Not only have things gone seriously pear shaped since then, with Ethiopian refugees fleeing into Sudan to escape the fighting, but the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front admitted today it had shelled Asmara airport in neighbouring Eritrea.

The TPLF claims this in retaliation for Ethiopian air force using Eritrean airports to launch attacks against it.

It could not get more difficult for Ahmed, who has vehemently denied this.

The Nobel Peace Prize he collected last year was for forging peace with Eritrea.

Not only has this been thrown into turmoil but the United National Human Rights Commission is saying the peacemaker faces possible war crimes charges for the lethal attacks his forces have made on Tigrayan civilians. 

How have things gone so wrong?

Tigrayans make up only six percent of Ethiopia’s 100-million population.

They had a disproportionate share of political power until Ahmed took the helm.

The Tigrayans paid a heavy toll in Ethiopia’s war with Eritrea 20 years ago.

Already marginalized by Ahmed, they were pushed even further out by the political reforms he initiated in Ethiopia.

The TPLF attack on an Ethiopian military base 12 days ago was both an expression of frustration and a demonstrate of muscle that the Addis Ababa forces felt obliged to answer ruthlessly.

Ahmed’s denials notwithstanding, the fighting has brought the prospect of all out war back to the Horn of Africa.

Before the Tigrayan attack, he was already dealing with clashes between the Oromo and the Amhara, which are the two largest ethnic groups in Ethiopia.

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