The actors that needed to be in Berlin at the weekend were all there. But the agreement they reached on Libya is as full of holes as a colander.

So much depends on what happens at the follow-up meeting in Geneva later this week.

Will the five parties named by each side in the conflict be able agree on how best to monitor the deal?

The success or failure of the deal concocted at the German-hosted deliberations will be determined by whether it can be translated into a resolution that can be unanimously adopted by United Nations Security Council.

The ultimate question, however, is who holds the economic trump card?  

Libya has confounded the best-intentioned peacemakers since the fall and killing of Muammar Gadaffi in 2011.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who hosted peace talks in Moscow a week before the Berlin gathering can hardly be said to fall into this category.

Neither, in all honesty, can German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

She was able to get the great and good to attend her talks.

But her motivation, like Putin’s, was not altruistic.

An increasing number of the desperate  people using Libya as a launching point for reaching a more secure – both physically and economically – future in Europe end up in Germany.

She has to be seen to be doing everything she can to stem this flow.

The oil-rich nation of Libya has become a poor country split between the weak United Nations-backed Government of National Accord led by Fayez Al-Sarraj and the rebel- held Benghazi in the east led by Khalifa Haftar.

Both these leaders were present in Berlin but did not overtly participate in the talks.

This was left to the leaders of Russia, Turkey, France, Egypt, Italy, the United States. and Britain.

Berlin was a convenient stopover for the World Economic Forum meeting starting in Davos, Switzerland.

Algeria, the United Arab Emirates, China, Congo Republic, United Nations, European Union and African Union all sent representatives.

En route to Berlin Al-Sarraj and Haftar stopped over the Athens for talks with the Greek government that has taken a far more active interest in Libya following the signing of a maritime and military agreement by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with Al-Sarraj.

Fears of Libya becoming a proxy war are plainly well grounded.

No surprise, therefore that the primary demand from Berlin was of non interference.

Ironically it as the interference of Turkey – whose parliament voted to allow deployment of troops to protects to GNA – and Russia playing its more muscular regional role that led to the ceasefire earlier in January.

The Berlin conference, having called on players to implement the 2011 arms embargo on Libyan combatants, urged those opposing parties to observe the ceasefire.

The conference added that sanctions will have to be imposed on those breaking this embargo – yet another issue that has to pass the UN Security Council

The only way through the impasse is by restoring the political process.

That is what has to happen in Geneva.

The biggest question is  whether Haftar, who walked out of the Moscow meeting, actually inked any document in Berlin.

He maintains he holds the whip hand when it comes to Libyan oil.

He has brought the flow of oil out of Libya to halt by preventing exports through the ports of  Brega, Ras Lanuf, Hariga, Zueitina and Sidra.

As long as  he maintains this choke-hold on the economy, he can be considered effectively to control the peace process.

Even human rights, always a major consideration, has to follow the money. 

In Berlin countries were once again urged not to return rescued migrants to the appalling conditions in the Libyan detention centers.

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This message on their website hours after leader Khalifa Haftar left Moscow without signing a ceasefire.

Libyan government leader Fayez Al Sarraj must wonder how he was played by his backer, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin who supports Khalifa  Haftar’s rebels.

They were called to Moscow to ink a ceasefire proposed last week by Erdogan and Putin.

It was clear from the start Putin could not deliver Haftar who left, saying he had to consider a few details.

The bellicose message that followed shows he intended duping the Government of National Accord while pursuing his plan to seize the capital Tripoli.

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It doesn’t name Turkey and Russia, whose efforts to broker a ceasefire has come apart.

The Pan African Parliament notes the social, humanitarian and security situation in Libya with great concern.

It rejects and condemns the suffering of the Libyan people and calls for an African or Libyan solution to alleviate this.

The PAP says Libya is being held hostage to mercantile machinations of belligerent parties both internal and external – a clear dig at rebel leader Khalifa Haftar who wrecked the ceasefire proposed by his backer Russian President Vladimir Putin

It calls on the international community and the United Nations Security Council to effect a ceasefire and revive the political process in Libya.

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Meeting in Istanbul, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for ceasefire to come into effect at midnight on Sunday.

The Turkish and Russian presidents were attending  the inauguration of the Turkestream pipeline carrying Russian gas through Turkey to Europe.

The 920 km pipeline that crosses the Black Sea is part of Russia’s efforts to avoid using  Ukraine to export its gas.

Turkey and Russia support opposite sides in the Libya conflict.

Vladimir Putin backs the rebel leader Khalifa Haftar whose forces have taken the strategic coastal town of Sirte and have set their sights on Tripoli.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is deploying troops to support the United-Nations-backed Government of National Accord in the capital. 

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President VladimirPutin has made it a priority to revive that substantial ties that Russia had with Africa during its Soviet period.

Russia acknowledges it has some catching up to do in rebuilding ties with Africa.

Vladimir Putin’s taking a leaf from the Chinese book in saying relations will not be affected by human rights or other considerations.

He’s promising to back African solutions to African problems.

Russia will look to building diplomatic and political ties with Africa, boosting defense and security co-operation, increasing economic assistance, backing disease control efforts and providing  educational and vocational training and stepping with humanitarian relief assistance

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He is speaking on the eve of summit Russia hope will give it a leg up in dealing with Africa.

Vladimir Putin knows the toughest competition Russia faces in boosting ties with Africa comes from China, the United States, India and Turkey.

He will tell the 47 African leaders gathered in Sochi this week that Russian friednship is based on their demand for African solutions to African problems.

There are sound economic reasons for improving relations with the fastest growing consumer market on the planet.

But, as China has shown, the immediate benefit is political with winning votes at the the United Nations and support in other international forae. 

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Earlier the prince met President Cyril Ramaphosa for discussions on cooperation in energy and investment.

The presence of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman at the gathering of leaders of the world’s richest countries is controversial following the killing in the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul of dissident Jamal Khashoggi.

The prince is widely believed to have ordered that killing.

In Buenos Aires last night he was left at the edge of the so-called family portrait and largely ignored by fellow attendees before he stormed off.

Later he and Russian leader Vladimir Putin exchanged high-fives as they entered the meeting chamber.

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His critics wonder whether Kabila’s putting in someone to stand for one term so he can return to power later.

Naming former interior minister Emmanuel Shadary as the man to contest the December presidential election for the ruling Peoples Party for Reconstruction and Democracy is a surprise move by DRC President Joseph Kabila.

Shadary is a loyal hardliner who is permanent secretary of the PPRD.

Critics are wondering if Kabila is taking the so-called Medvedev option – referring to Russian President Vladimir Putting putting a loyalist at the helm while he stayed out of office for the constitutionally obligatory one term.

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He’s one of 26 invited heads of state, a dozen of whom have already arrived.

Angola’s foreign affairs department says Russian President Vladimir Putin, British premier Theresa May, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Egyptian leader Abdelfatah El Sisi have been to the inauguration …

…that will bring Luanda to a stop today.

A raft of African leaders have already arrived in Angola.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame touched down shortly before his South Africa  counterpart Jacob Zuma last night.

Zuma’s expressed the desire to have relations established during the liberation struggles in both countries translate into significant bilateral trade and investment.

In addition to meeting with President Joao Lourenco, Zumas will see outgoing president Jose Eduardo Dos Santos and have bilateral meetings with a number of African peers.

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Russia’s Vladimir Putting heads a  list of very good friends of Cuba who’ve elected to send representative to the pay respects to the revolutionary icon.

Not surprisingly a raft of left Latin American Presidents will be at Fidel Castro’s funeral, showing how the world has changed since he took power in 1959.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras appears to be the only European leader there, bolstered by Spain’s former King Juan Carlos.

Former IRA activist Gerry Adams is in Havana because, he says, Fidel was a good friend of Ireland.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is a surprise no show.

Castro was an honorary pallbearer at the funeral of his father Pierre.

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