There is a growing belief among academics and political observers that South Africa will be ruled by an African National Congress coalition after next months election.
This rests on the poor performance by the current ruling party in opinion polls indicating its will lose its overall parliamentary majority. This that has fallen from 62% when Nelson Mandela led it to power in 1995 and to 57% at the previous election in 2019
Dirk Kotze, a lecturer in University of South Africa, who widely quoted as an authoritative commentator in South African media says the ANC would be loathe form an alliance with the breakaway uhMkonto WeSizwe led by disgraced former President Jacob Zuma or the far left Economic Freedom Fighters led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema.
He believe the ANC is more likely to turn to the Democratic Alliance or the Zulu-dominated Inkatha Freedom Party to make up its majority in the legislature.
“Who this is will largely determine South Africa’s foreign policy,” says Kotze.
“President Cyril Ramaphosa wants to adopt a more non-aligned centrist approach. This is not the classical Global South posture.
“As a member of BRICS, South Africa will maintain good relations with Russia and China.
“This will not, however be to the detriment of relations – particularly economic ties with our traditional Western trading partners.
Kotze says the United States is a good example.
“Washington might be angry with South Africa because of its tough stand against Israel’s attacks on Gaza and its refusal to condemn Russia’s operation in Ukraine but it remains one of South Africa’s top three tradition partners and regards South Africa ss the gateway to Southern and Central Africa: Namibia, Zimbabwe, Zambia and the Democratic Republic Congo.
“Africa is a highly contested economic market. I am told by sources in the Department of Economic Relations and Cooperation that he five major summits between Africa and the U.S., Japan, China, Turkey and the EU will grow to nine next year.”
Kotze says Ramaphosa’s desire to play to meditating role in international conflicts will not be affected by the ANC’s poor political performance.
“South Africa remains more favorably regarded abroad that it does at home where corruption, failure of service delivery and poor economic performance have whittled away at ANC support.”