This rests on the  poor performance by the current ruling party in opinion polls indicating its will lose its overall parliamentary majority. This that has fallen from  62% when Nelson Mandela led it to power in 1995  and to 57% at the previous election in 2019 

Dirk Kotze, a lecturer in University of South Africa, who widely quoted as an authoritative commentator in South African media says the ANC would be loathe form an alliance with the breakaway uhMkonto WeSizwe led by disgraced former President Jacob Zuma or the far left Economic Freedom Fighters led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema.

He believe the ANC is more likely to turn to the Democratic Alliance or the Zulu-dominated Inkatha Freedom Party to make up its majority in the legislature.

“Who this is will largely determine South Africa’s foreign policy,” says Kotze.

“President Cyril Ramaphosa wants to adopt a more non-aligned centrist approach. This is not the classical Global South posture.

“As a member of BRICS, South Africa  will maintain good relations with Russia and China.

“This will not, however be to the detriment of relations – particularly economic  ties with our traditional Western trading partners.

Kotze says the United States is a good example.

“Washington might be angry with South Africa  because of its tough stand against Israel’s attacks on Gaza and its refusal to condemn Russia’s operation in Ukraine but it remains one of South Africa’s top three tradition partners and regards South Africa ss the gateway  to Southern and Central Africa: Namibia, Zimbabwe, Zambia and the Democratic Republic Congo.

“Africa is a highly contested economic market. I am told by sources in the Department of Economic Relations and Cooperation that he five major summits between Africa and the U.S., Japan, China, Turkey and the EU will grow to nine next year.”

Kotze says Ramaphosa’s desire to play to meditating role in international conflicts will not be affected by the ANC’s poor political performance.

“South Africa remains more favorably regarded abroad that it does at home where corruption, failure of service delivery and poor economic performance have whittled away at ANC support.” 

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is resisting calls to declare a state of emergency as the nation counts the cost of days of looting and violence.

Former National Director of Public Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli is the latest high profile figure to call for a such a declaration after looters, operating with impunity against outnumbered police,  stripped bare the shelves of stores in the coastal province of KwaZulu/Natal and the commercial heartland of Gauteng.

At least 73 people have died in the violence that has cost an estimated two billion rands.

Police have made 1200 arrests.

Defence Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula says a state of emergency will be declared should the need arise.

2500 of her troops have been drafted in to help police.

Carrying assault rifles loaded with sharp point ammunition, they have stopped looters who minutes earlier were taunting police armed with teargas and rubber bullets.

Police Minister Bheki Cele, visting the ruins of a mall in Alexandra, which neighbors salubrious Sandton, says the emphasis now has to be on preventing further anarchy.

“It would have been better had this not happened,” he said pointing to the burned out shops, “but the fact that it did does not mean we cannot prevent it happening again.”

The looting was initially ascribed to protests against the jailing last week of ex-President Jacob Zuma for contempt of court.

Ramaphosa has condemned the exploitation of ethnic differences with Zuma’s Zulu tribe in KwaZulu/Natal

Analysts and community leaders, however, say the anarchy is spread by the desperation of people facing unemployment and grinding poverty exacerbated by the COVID pandemic lockdown and by rampant criminality as people realize they can grab what they want without consequences.

Cele says the authorities have identified a dozen people who have exploited this and used social media to instigate violence snd disorder.

State Security Minister Ayanda Dlodlo says they are investigating a sinister third force of former state security agents loyal to Zuma using their insider knowledge to stoke the flames of unrest.

Traffic along the arterial highway between Johannesburg and Durban has been stopped for a week. At least 40 trucks have been torched and used to block the road.

This means that the stores stripped by the looters will take weeks to resupply once the trucks are able to move.

The break in the supply chain has also affected the COVID vaccination programme that began hesitantly and late in the African country worst his by the pandemic.

Fear of the violence has closed the SAPREF petrol refinery that supplies a third of South Africa’s fuel.

Motorists have began queuing to fill their vehicles.

Ramaphosa will meet political leaders today, seeking bipartisan support against the anarchy.

He met with business leaders yesterday and with the State Security Council.

Communities are stepping up to protect their neighborhoods and shopping malls.

Armed private security firms in the wealthier neighborhoods have thus far managed to ensure that malls under their protection are not among the 200 that have been gutted.

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Magashule is out on 11000 euros bail facing corruption charges over a fraudulent 14 million euro tender on an asbestos factory when he headed the  province .

The decision to have the hearing on Sunday was announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa on the eve of World Anti Corruption Day.

He was reporting on a tense two-day meeting of the party’s top decision-making body the National Executive Committee.

Ramaphosa is claiming a victory saying that body has not retreated from its decision at the party’s 54th national conference that members charged with corruption against the party or the country should step aside.

Magashule and his supporters are fighting this. They have produced five legal opinions calling on the executive to drop this demand and acknowledge that members facing charges are protected by the legal maxim that they are innocent until proven guilty.

Ramaphosa counters this with the assertion that legal opinions notwithstanding the ANC in voluntary organization that binds members to decisions of the executive.

It will be for the party Top Six – of which both Ramaphosa and Magashule are members – to decide on what action to take after the Integrity Commission has deliberated.

John Steenhuisen, leader of the opposition Democratic Alliance has called Ramaphosa’s action “spineless”.

Steenhuisen says the Integrity Commission is like a court in which the judges are sympathetic with the corrupt.

“This is a spineless move which proves that President is too weak to take decisive action against has party’s most corrupt opting once again  to choose the ANC over South Africa, kowtowing to both his comrades and the voters,” says Steenhuisen.

Analysts says this is the beginning of the process to remove Magashule and ANC members guilty of corruption.

The extent of corruption in South Africa is daily underlined at hearing of the Zondo Commission into state capture.

While there is growing disenchantment with the ANC over this, the majority of voters continue to support the party.

Ramaphosa says critics will be disappointed that the final NEC meeting of the year did produce the walk outs and  punch ups they predicted.

He rounded on ANC members making statements at odds with decisions of the executive and said its was unacceptable for supporters of Magashule to have burned ANC regalia outside the court where he appeared last month.

His case has been adjourned until February next year.

This will be a busy month in court for the ANC. Former President Jacob Zuma’s corruption trial has also been postponed until February.

Ramaphosa took a swipe at Zuma and others who had disrespected the Zondo Commission.

Zuma walked out of the commission last month, without permission, when Deputy Chief Justice Raymond Zondo refused to recuse himself.

Zuma has been sumonsed to appear before Zondo in January and February next year.

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 Shortly after the second most senior official in South Africa’s ruling party was been released on R200 000 bail, he told ANC members: “If you don’t expropriate land and nationalism the mines, you are not a liberation movement.”

He wi9ll appear with seven other on February 19 next year when the matter is expected to be moved to the High Court in Bloemfontein where the ANC was founded 108 years ago.

Conditions of bail prevent Masgashule from making contact directly or indirectly with with his former personal assistant Moroadi Chalota who has turned state’s witness.

Chalota is understood to be studying in the United States.

The case relates to fraudulent tenders for asbestos roofing on economic housing during Magashule’s term as premier of Free State province.

Magashule allegedly sent money from the tender to officials and judges. He also allegedly solicited money for officials to travel to Cuba.

His lawyer Lawrence Hodes noted that the charge sheet does not mention his taking any money for himself.

Magistrate Amos Moos pointed out the inconsistency of Magashule appearing in the dock unshackled.

He stressed that his decision on bail has nothing to do with Magashule’s position in society

Prosecutor Johann de Nysschen said Magashule was not handcuffed because of the degree of cooperation by the accused who turned himself in to the serious crimes squad known as the Hawks this morning for arrest and processing from where he was transported to court 

Magashule was cheered by ANC officials in the court when he climbed up from cells into the dock where he sat alone.

More than a thousand people clamoured outside the court this morning  demanding to be let in.

Numbers were, limited because of social distancing necessitated by the COVID 19 pandemic.

The crowd illustrated the deep divisions within the ruling party.

It was divided between people demanding justice and an end to corruption and those alleging that the charges against Magashule are politically  motivated by President Cyril Ramaphosa who has never wanted him as the party’s secretary general.

They wore ANC regalia and carried banners in the colours of the ruling party.

This ran counter to Magashule’s request that his supporters avoid appearing officially to represent the ANC.

Leaders of the party present attended in their personal capacity.

They have not explained why Magashule has not been ordered to stand down, as party regulations require, until the criminal charges have been dealt with.

Magashule who maintains he is being targeted for his support of radical economic transformation and his opposition to white monopoly capital, told supporters the ANC does not belong to any individual. So its unity is important.

“The party has been infiltrated,” he said “There are those who are compromised  because they were working as agents during apartheid rule.

“Any revolution has counter revolutionaries,” he said.

He was elected by a collective of branches. Only they, and not individuals on the party executive, can order him to step down.

“Nobody can remove us,” he said, threatening ing to become a whistle blower

“They say Ace Magashule is corrupt. I will show you corruption. I will give you details about the people who are making a lot of noise.

“You know they have received money and are still receiving money today 

He accused his media critics of being sponsored by white monopoly and of failing to report the hundreds of  Free State student he sent to Cuba to study medicine while he was Free State premier.

He offered to give the media information about the houses built under his premiership and the infrastructural developments even though he doubted they would use it.

Magashule appearance follows that of former President Jacob Zuma who’s trial on graft charges starts next month.

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In those heady, early days of democracy South Africa was often said to be punching above its weight diplomatically.

There was not a country that did not want to be the friend of Nelson Mandela’s success story.

Many sought help, hoping that rubbing  up against  it might bring some good fortune.

So, in addition to their considerable domestic commitments Mandela and his early successors were required to be counsellors and mediators.

They were expected to explain how they  achieved the seemingly impossible end of apartheid and the reconciliation that brought about the Rainbow Nation.

Northern Ireland is perhaps the best example of this

Many times, South African leaders were obliged to apply these lessons by actually stepping  in between parties in conflict and brokering a peace.

This applied mainly in Africa where South African mediation achieved settlements in Sudan, Comoros, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cote d’Ivoire and Lesotho.

The fact that things have lately gone pear-shaped in many of these nations is a debate for another day.

However badly things have fared, they are indubitably better off having  had South African mediation and peacekeeping at a time when the rest of the  world was either unwilling or incapable to intervening.

Thankfully, that is not the case in Sudan today.

The African Union has built the confidence and experience to make its presence felt by red-carding the Transitional Military Council until it hands power to a civilian administration.

The Arab nations are there, albeit misguidedly lending moral support to the military junta in Khartoum until the generals made the fatal error of deploying the former janjaweed against unarmed protestors.

The United States has got involved, sending Tibor Nagy its top envoy to Africa to urge an and to the violence.

It has also named Donald Booth as its special envoy to Sudan – the ninth since 2001.

Not only Washington, but Hollywood has skin in the game through activity actor George Clooney calling on the U.S. Treasury to use its muscle with international banks to dry up the financial stream to the junta in Khartoum and anyone seeking to prolong the conflict in the strategically place country bridging Africa and the Arab worlds.

Look for South Africa in this crowd and you will be disappointed.

Does this mean the days of Mzanzi mediation are over?

Probably not.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has his hands full pulling South Africa out of the economic swamp.

For him it is very much a case of charity beginning at home.

The sad reality is the wasted Zuma years of Zuma corruption has cut the moral high ground from under South Africa’s feet.

That is ironic, because Zuma himself was a good, although tough, mediator.

“Do you really think you can twist a man’s arm behind his back hard enough to  get him to sign a settlement with his free hand?” I asked him in jest after he had brought a reluctant  Pierre Nkurunziza into the Burundi deal.

“What do you think the did to us at Codesa?” he retorted.

ends

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A number of bilateral agreements will be signed after the meeting.

Bilateral relations between France and South Africa were upgraded during then President Jacob Zuma’s state visit to France in 2016.

This is the first time that the joint forum will take place at ministerial level.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves le Drian and his host Lindiwe Sisulu will strive to strengthen and deepen political and economic relations between France and South Africa.

They’ll discuss issues of African significance and global governance including reform of the United Nations and the international financial institutions.

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Having failed to persuade the President  that he should keep his job, Gigaba quit on the eve of Cyril  Ramaphosa’s trip to the European Parliament in Strasbourg and South Africa- European Union summit in Brussels.

Just last week, Malusi Gigaba vowed he would not step down.

He did not give reasons for his resignation in his letter yesterday (Tuesday) to President Cyril Ramaphosa.

It follows a report by the Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane that Gigaba violated the executive ethics code by lying under oath about dealings with the Anglo American Corporation and circulation of an embarrassing sex tape he said he made for his wife.

Gigaba was also heavily criticized for granting citizenship to members of the wealthy Indian family the Guptas accused of corrupt dealings with former President Jacob Zuma.

Opposition politicians said Gigaba had done the honorable thing by falling on his sword.

Democratic Alliance leader Mmusi Maimane  said Gigaba had done profound damage to state owned enterprises and to South Africa’s tourism industry.

He had done enormous harm to the economy and demonstrated that he could not be trusted.

Transport Minister Blade Nzimande has been asked to step in as Home Affairs Minister until a permanent appointment is made.

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In scenes reminiscent of former President Jacob Zuma’s appearances in the chamber, a bottle was thrown and two members were expelled for trading blows.

President Cyril Ramaphosa was blameless in the melee that saw members call each other racist and corrupt.

Ramaphosa acknowledged in this first reply that his financial advisers son Andile has done business with a corruption linked firm but hey was satisfied the money has honestly earned. 

He assured the house that is his son was guilty of corruption he would personally drive him to jail.

He also assured MPs the national flag carrier South African Airways would not close down, as his Finance Minister Tito Mboweni advocated last week. 

Closing to obligate government to damage the discus by immediately repaying the airline’s hefty debt

Answering a question about the threat posed by ethnic chauvinism and narrow nationalism, Ramaphosa’s reply was particularly germane  to the pandemonium that had ensued in the house beforehand.

He said South Africa characterizes itself as a non racial democracy and that is what it must be.

“There should never be time and an opportunity where we see each other as black, white and so forth and insult one another. There should never be times like that.We are South Africans. This is what defines us. This is a key hallmark of what distinguishes us and separates us from many many other peoples in the world,” he said.

Ramaphosa said South Africans share an obligation to build a united, non racial, non sexist and democratic society.

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Both men were sacked by Zuma in 2011 for following up on this tip off from their U.S. counterparts.

Mo Shaik, who headed up the South African Security Service which deals with foreign intelligence threats, had close ties the CIA.

In 2011 he was asked by the U.S. agency why the Guptas had bought a uranium mine and where they planned to sell this strategic mineral.

The commission probing so-called state capture heard last week that the Guptas planned to become the sole supplier of uranium to the South African government for the nuclear power station they were pressing it to buy.

Shaik and the former head of the National Intelligence  Agency Gibson Njenje now say they wish to testify before this commission headed by Deputy Chief Justice Raymond  Zondo.

Shaik says he approached Zuma several times to tell him about the danger posed to state security by the Guptas.

Zuma told Shaik the Guptas were the only people prepared to help his son who became a rand billionaire through his connection with the Indian family.

In May 2016 Shaik and Njenje signed a call by 27 top public servants calling for an independent inquiry into state capture. 

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He says to win next year’s election the ANC has to address the needs of  the broadest range of South African especially the youth.

Fraught with debilitating factional fighting and power battles playing out in its own structures, South Africa’s  ruling  ANC faces an uphill battle in next year’s election.

President Cyril Ramaphosa, who took over the leadership of the party at the end of last year,  has kicked off the process of drafting the ANC’s election manifesto.

He likens it to drawing up the Freedom Charter which was adopted 63 years ago.

Ramaphosa told a manifesto workshop  the party wants to hear as many views as possible to draft a revolutionary document that includes input from academics and experts.

He urged participants to challenge conventional thinking and interrogate existing programs.

According to him, the manifesto has to be one message told with many voices.

He urged those responsible not to hold back, to be as direct as possible, and to call a  spade a spade.

Ramaphosa added that the centre must hold at all  costs as the election message is propagated.

Former president Jacob Zuma arrived at the worship while Ramaphosa was speaking to delegates.

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